When political shit goes south

It's funny, but if you observe politics long enough you see the same patterns played out over and over again.

Take, for example, the current travails besetting the National Party - which is currently about as popular as an STD-riddled knocking shop. It only seems like yesterday that the Labour Party was in a similar state. It wasn't so much that they were "Nigel no friends" as they were "Karens without a cause".

As Goff was to Labour, Bridges was to National. If David Shearer was Labour's 'mumblefuck' (people in his own inner sanctum called him this), then Muller was National's "clusterfuck".

Which kind of makes Judith Collins National's answer to David Cunliffe.

Now, as disturbing as that sounds, and as much as both of them would loathe the comparison, it actually holds some weight. Cunliffe led a party that had seen its vote collapse. In a desperate bid to shore up its vote he took it to the left - and in doing so he abandoned the middle. You know, that juicy piece of political real estate where most of the voters hang out.

And we all know how that worked out.

Collins has been doing the same. When you're polling in the 20s, and incidentally well below that mid-30s mark you've previously signalled as a benchmark for stability of leadership, you're going to try and pull any sort of rabbit out of hat to try and shore up your support. In this case the rabbit is a redneck with overwhelming overtones of racism.

This approach might have got Don Brash to 40% in 2005, but that was a generation ago. Demographs have changed, and while there remains an innate core of conservatism and racism in the country, its not the force it was 16 years ago. Playing the race card plays to the National Party base, but not so much to the centre as it once did.

The irony is we're hearing some of the same arguments over the relevance and importance of the centre as we did a decade ago. I remember sitting absolutely gobsmacked as a senior Labour MP declared to me (completely seriously I might add) that there was no centre in New Zealand politics and any suggestion it existed was the fevered imagination of the mainstream media. There was also the vehement denial of the polls and the stubborn insistence of, "that's not what I'm hearing on the ground".

Of course it's not. You're shoring up your base, you're talking to to your own supporters. Of course they're going to reflect your expectations.

John Key may have been the least ideological Prime Minister in recent history. He may have been a poll-driven populist who enjoyed the attention and adulation Prime Ministership brought him. He may have also had the least consequential political legacy of any Prime Minister New Zealand's ever had (cough .. flag ... cough). But, he was incredibly plugged into the electorate and innately tuned to their needs, wants, and fears - and he knew how to meet them.

The National Party no longer does.

The Kiddie Effect

There's a major difference between our current Government and the previous one that I only found out about today.

It turns out the current National Party led Cabinet is a lot more fecund than that of the old Labour regime. Apparently, between them, our current collection of Ministers have 19 school age children.

That compares to just two when Helen Clark was chairing the meetings.

Now I'd hate for anyone to read too much into this (no comments about them being a bunch of f**kers please!) but apparently it has had some interesting ramifications.

It's all to do with the ministerial residences. You see under Labour most Ministers ended up renting apartments. But apartments are hardly the best residence when you have kids underfoot. So it seems the powers that be have been having a bit of time locating suitably appropriate digs for our new ministerial warrant holders.

Political Musings for 2008

After a year of playing poli' chaser I guess it's time to sit back and reflect on the highs and lows, as well as the fuck ups, achievements, and happenings of the year.

George W Bush Award for Dumbest Statement:


Winston Peters for his "no" comment on receiving donations from businessman Owen Glenn.
That, along with all the finagling and hypocrisy over NZ First's party funding, effectively killed Winston's 30 year political career - oh, and his party.


Balls of Steel Moment:

National Leader John Key for refusing to do a post election deal with aforementioned Winston Peters.
It could have blown up in his face had Labour run a better (or even slightly intelligent) election campaign.


Most Misguided Campaign Approach:

Labour wins this hands down.
When you're defending the actions of NZ First the last thing you should do is base your strategy on trust. It's about as intelligent as DIY circumcision.


The "What the fuck is this person doing in Parliament" Trophy:

Lots of competition for this award this year with some perennial favourites in the running. (ie Judith Tizard, Ashraf Choudhary, Colin King, Allan Peachy, Gordon Copeland, Barbara Stewart).
However the winner has to be .... Ashraf Choudhary. In the face of complete non-achievement, invisibility, and general all around lack of ability he's back in Parliament thanks to a relatively high position on Labour's Party list.
(how on earth do they work their selection system? - it sure as hell can't be based on talent or ability).

Unluckiest MP:

Labour MP Damien O'Connor. Just 40 more party votes and he'd have been back in Parliament. He never recovered from the disaster that was his stint as Minister of Corrections and lost his West Coast seat. He also had the misfortune to be the subject of a nasty and false smear campaign run by certain right wing members of the blogosphere - he should have sued them.

Paris Hilton Award for Blatant Self Promotion:

Act Leader Rodney Hide. That godawful yellow jacket. (and other publicity stunts)
Need I say more?


Darwin Award for Sheer Blind Pig Ignorance and Complete Lack of Brain Cells:

The Labour Party staffers who were dumb enough to try and flog 37 bottles of wine from the Press Gallery's end of year Xmas Party.
How can anyone work in Parliament and not know that the security cameras are everywhere and see everything? Congratulations to Mr Aidan Smith and friends - your public service careers are now terminally fucked.

The Keystone Cops Medal for Services to Political Investigations:

No contest here. Soon to be ex-Labour Party President Mike Williams is the hands down winner here.
What on earth possessed him to fly to Australia to trawl through thousands of documents trying to find dirt on National Leader John Key only he will know. Mikey, Mikey, that's what you have party flunkies for. Let them handle the shit storm if the efforts come up empty - at least that way you can have some sort of plausible deniability.

And letting reporters know exactly what you were up to was overwhelmingly dumb too. What exactly did you think might happen if you came up empty? That they might forget about it??


And finally - Politician of the Year:

Nope I'm not giving it to John Key for winning the election. It was his to lose after all. Nor am I going to give it to Helen Clark for the consummate way she handled the election defeat and the leadership succession - there can be no rewards for losers.

Instead I'm giving it to Maori Party MP Hone Harawira.
Why? Well I'll say one thing for Hone, unlike many of his peers you're never in any doubt about where he stands and what his opinions are. personally I find that rather refreshing.

Also anyone who says he wants to kill Trevor Mallard and tells Jim Anderton to go and jump in the lake can't be all bad.

Can he?

Mistletoe and - Oh Shit - Some Bugger's Pinched Me Wine!

These boys are in the shit.

And deservedly so.

Yes in the wee hours of this morning - around 2.30 am to be precise - they were nabbed making off with 37 bottles of wine from the Press Gallery's annual Christmas Party. Three boxes worth actually - and they'd even had the cheek to pinch a chilly bin and pack it with ice so they could keep the chardonnays and sauvignon blancs nicely chilled.

To be precise one was caught and referred to police but his colleagues will be as well. The wonderful thing about Parliament is that it has security cameras everywhere and today the security staff have been collecting all the shots they need to identify the three that weren't picked up. Not that it really matters as it is known who they are.

Now had they made off with a couple of bottles I suspect the Gallery members would have required they return them and left it at that (this has happened in the past with a certain gentleman that made off with a case of bubbly).

But to take over three dozen is beyond the pale. Especially given the culprits had been merrily drinking free booze all night.

A brief four line apology was sent to the Gallery Chair this afternoon via Parliament's internal mail from the person arrested. I suspect had he come down and fronted in person it might have been taken a little more seriously.

Of course the fact a note was sent might be because he's already been given the arse from the premises. I'm reliably informed there are a number of senior Labour MPs who'd happily throttle those involved.

Other than that it was a damn good party - kudos to the organisers.

Karma

What follows is, for me, the best story of the 2008 election campaign. Unfortunately I wasn't there to witness the occasion but quite a few people that I know well were there so I can vouch for this tale's authenticity.

In the last moments of the campaign, as matters were reaching their frenetic conclusion, a group of reporters were camped outside National Party Leader John Key's Parnell residence in the hope of catching a quick stand-up interview with him. A semi-functioning member of society driving by felt the need to wind down his window and hurl some abuse at the esteemed members of the aforesaid fourth estate.

Unfortunately for this news critic he made his colourful outburst in full view of a member of the Diplomatic Protection Squad who dutifully took down the registration details of the man's car and made some discreet enquiries.

It turned out the critic was on company time and driving his company car when he was expounding his opinions on the media. It also turned out his boss was less than impressed with his behaviour and not at all happy about finding out about via the agency tasked with protecting the Prime Minister and the man aspiring to her job.

So a little later that same morning our hero had did walk of shame, returned to the scene of his verbiage, and made a humble apology to the assembled reporters.

As a reporter I like the way it all panned out. In this job abuse is frequent, praise is rare, and apologies nigh well unheard of.

So big ups to the DPS, and the lesson to be learned: don't f**k with them.

Get a Grip

I note a few of the Kiwi political blogs, particularly those with right of centre leanings, have decided to up sticks and call it quits now the election is done and dusted.

Fair enough.

But for those who are claiming that their efforts in some way influenced the outcome of the election ... Please. Give me a break!

You (like me) are really that not special and your efforts, while no doubt impressive to yourselves, don't really add up to much in the grand scale of things.

In fact I suspect I influenced the election more than you lot did when I farted in a polling booth on election day.

Tax Cut Theory

Just a theory based on a bit of random supposition - feel free to explode it if you like.

But ....

If National's looking at ways of covering the cost of its tax cuts package and alterations to KiwiSaver are in the mix, then what's the chance of the $1000 Government kick-start contribution being the part they alter??

Logically the employer tax credits are unlikely to be in the mix. Targeting that would seriously piss off employers and the business community which, lets face it, are a National Party constituency.

So far over 800,000 workers are signed up to KiwiSaver and have claimed the $1000 contribution. That's 800 million dollars. Now looking at the Department of Statistics workforce figures they say there are over 2.1 million people in the workforce. On that basis there are around 1.3 million workers left that potentially could sign up to KiwiSaver.

So ... if National removes the kick-start contribution it has $1.3 billion dollars of previously committed money it can set aside for its tax package.

And there is a way they can sell it too. If a tax cut is $50 a week then the one off $1000 payment that would have been in KiwiSaver is covered in 20 weeks, and the tax break accrued every extra week becomes an added bonus as far as the taxpayer is concerned. Potentially money that can be saved for retirement.

As I say it's just a thought and it probably has holes you could drive a truck through.

Stop Bloody Cribbing John

In his closing speech to Parliament today John Key was quoted thusly;

Mr Key says Labour's a walkman in an iPod world.However he says the walkman batteries have gone flat and the music's stopped playing.

Now normally I wouldn't have a problem with this as it's not a bad metaphor. A little glib maybe, but not a bad turn of phrase.

Except ....

In 2006, in his adjournment speech to Parliament shortly after taking the National Party leadership, John Key said this:

As we saw from Michael Cullen's speech, their days are numbered. They are a Walkman Government in an iPod world. They are dinosaurs, that is what they are. They are gone. That member does not know what an iPod is, that is the problem. He should plug it into his ears.

C'mon John, how hard is it to come up with some new material??? I mean, given recent events, there's been some A-grade material to poke fun at.

Rhyme Time

I've come to the conclusion most political stories/scandals can be summed up in terms of childrens' playground rhymes.

For example:

The Winston Peters/NZ First funding scandal.

"Liar, liar. Your pants are on fire."

The tiff on who can we trust between Labour and National. John Key and his Tranzrail shares vs Helen Clark not letting on about her knowledge of Winston Peters' funding arrangements.

"I know you are, you said you are. But what am I?"

Politically Incorrect Joke of the Week

A bloke goes into a bar and says to the bartender "I'd like a Winston Peters".
The bartender's perplexed having never heard of such a drink before.
"Come again? What was it you were wanting?"
"A Winston Peters" says the customer.
"Look" says the bartender, "I'm sorry I have no idea what that is"
To which the customer replies, "A Lion Brown".

[with apologies to the office of the race relations conciliator]

Game Time

OK things are set to be very hectic over the next couple of months as I gallivant all over the country chasing politicians in the build up to the election.

Depending on how riveting it is (and if there's any decent goss') I may post on it from time to time. Though I suspect work commitments will be the over-riding priority.

It'll definitely mean no time for exercise which will be real bummer as Wellington's weather seems to have turned the corner. Today was just the perfect day to do this. Not a long ride, but has a couple of hefty hills, and I must be getting fit as for once I was actually overtaking people on the climbs.

Not bad for a dirty smoker.

Billboards

A Quick Prediction

Based on Owen Glenn's testimony today and comments subsequently made by the Prime Minister here's how I think the rest of the week will play out.

Winston Peters will give his evidence tomorrow night.

Helen Clark will consider it.

And on Thursday, or Friday at the latest, Winston Peters will be ....



And why do I say this?

Well the Emissions Trading Scheme, for which the Government needs and has NZ First's support, is set to pass tomorrow night before Winston Peters Privileges Committee hearing is due to finish.

The Government has its keynote law in the bag. The PM can give Mr Peters the right of reply and observe due process.

Then she can give him the boot.

The Evolution of Winston.

(or a three line political history)

1993 - THE GREAT REDEEMER

1996-99 - THE GREAT PRETENDER

2008 - THE GREAT DECEIVER??

Doublespeak, Evasions, Fibs, and Downright Lies.

I'm talking about you Mr Peters.

Administrative error my arse!

Things That Piss Me Off

Number 1 (in a series of hundreds)

- companies that put out video press releases instead of fronting for interviews.
Cadbury NZ you can fuck right off!

- media outlets that use said video press releases (you know who you are)

- wingnuts that think New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters deliberately put himself in a position where he could be investigated by the Privileges Committee and the Serious Fraud Office just so he could play the underdog and then, hey presto, pull the rug out from everyone's feet and prove he was in the right all along.
Seriously, do you think anyone (particularly a politician in election year) wants to be in a position where they might be perceived as being a duplicitous and fraudulent S.O.B??

But on the positive side ....

Apparently I'm part of dark influence on New Zealand politics and part of a hidden agenda to destroy a political party.

How cool is that???

Though I must say being a dark influence doesn't pay that well and if there's a pot of money on offer I'm buggered if I've heard of it (let alone seen it)

PS I know I've not been blogging a lot. Truth be told I can't be arsed.

Accidental Policy

Here's an interesting theory for you; what if the immigration rant from New Zealand First last month was a balls up in a way you would never expect?

What if Peter Brown's position on future Asian population figures was never supposed to happen?

It requires one hell of a suspension of belief but the weird thing is the theory might just have some legs.

Let me explain. It involves a convergence of different events occurring within the party.

The thing is in recent months NZ First has seen some pretty significant changes within its Leader's Office. The main one being the departure of Winston Peters SPS Graham Harding and the retirement of Ernie Davis. That left a pretty large hole that needed to be filled quick smart. Because the party needed someone with campaign experience it saw the return of one Frank Perry. Now Frank was a stalwart press secretary for New Zealand First during the 1990's and earlier this decade and we all know what that period was famous for as far as immigration and Asians are concerned?

Don't we?

So here's the scenario as it's been explained to me by someone who is in a position to know. Frank Perry saw the figures in the Department of Statistics release and automatically treated them the way he always had. He saw the immigration angle, pumped it for all it was worth, and sent out the release with Peter Brown's name on it. We all know what happened next.

Ok, that's one part of the theory. Part two is the contradictory statements made by New Zealand First MP Dail Jones who pretty much immediately defended Asian immigrants and the role they have in New Zealand. He made a speech to that effect in the house and then went around the Press Gallery the next day handing out copies of it. If New Zealand First had deliberately chosen to play the race card why was one of its MPs (and a former Party President) challenging it?

To me it suggests they had no policy whatsoever, or even a tacit strategy not to use immigration as an issue this election. Or at least not yet.

Here comes the next part of my theory - The China Free Trade Deal.

New Zealand First opposed the deal on the basis it wasn't good enough. If you look at the arguments put forward by Peters they were based on economics, trade, timing of tariff reductions, and dealing with a low wage economy. You'll note immigration and the labour clause, while mentioned, was pretty much skipped over. It'd be fair to assess New Zealand First as choosing to oppose the FTA on dollars, not race. At least that was the position Peters seemed to take.

Now if we take this at face value (and given the Party had predetermined its stand on the FTA some time in advance we almost have to) wouldn't deliberately embarking on an Asian immigration bashing crusade just a week or so previously seriously undercut the arguments they'd later make against the FTA?

Consistency might not be Winston's strongest point but he's not a political idiot.

The immigration statements from Peter Brown got the party labelled as racist, and that perception carried over to its stand on the FTA. Winston Peters is savvy enough a political operator that you can bet your life he would have moved heaven and earth to avoid such a situation.

Still Taking the Piss (literally)

This time a look at the debate last year on raising the legal purchase age for alcohol.

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Actually ....

While I'm on this audio tangent here's a little blast from the past. A taste of New Zealand politics in late 2006.

Click here for more information about the songs
Click here to create your own MySpace Playlist

What Goes Around Comes Around.

Well I guess if you get in the business of using musical ditties to take the piss out of others it's kind of inevitable someone will return the favour.