The numbers -Simon has them

So, the gossip from Parliament is that Bridges does have the numbers to roll Collins

But, the Caucus enthusiasm for him isn't exactly overwhelming.

Apparently, it's like choosing between herpes and syphilis.

Hypocritical Cunts

Is Bomber Bradbury's vituperative defence of Martin Devlin simply a bombastic defence of his own deficiencies?

What skeletons are in Martyn's closet?

Quite a few if industry gossip is anything to go by.

Double Fucking Standards

While I think of it.

I'm really interested in Judith Collins and her position on hate speech laws. You know, the ones she's announced a National Party led Government would repeal because of the importance of free speech and the rights to self-expression.

I hear National MP Todd Muller got forced out because he gossiped to a reporter about a colleague - the one with the dodgy expense claims.

Free speech warriors always tend to defend the speech they like. Not so much the barbs that cut a little too close to home.

Many years ago, more years back than I care to remember, back when I was a cub reporter in Christchurch, I was given a tip about the SIS carrying out surveillance on the Al-Noor mosque. This was back in the days when the 9-11 attacks were fresh in the memory; the USA was at war in Afghanistan and was making its moves to invade Iraq. It was a time when all things Muslim were being treated with great suspicion.

Add in the euro-centric and barely closeted nature of Christchurch racism, and you can see that Christchurch was probably right up there with Alabama when it came to religious tolerance and cultural understanding.

The SIS monitoring or, to put it bluntly, spying on the mosque was pretty Mickey Mouse. According to my source, the panel vans were relatively obvious, and the awkward Caucasian blokes slouching around, trying to fit in while trying to take note of who was going in and out of the mosque were, “a bit fucking obvious”.

It wasn’t quite pie and a porno in a briefcase level of tradecraft, but it was pretty close.

From what I was told, those at the mosque initially didn’t make waves. After all, the mood of the times wasn’t great, and they didn’t want to make a fuss. But, as time went on, it became a bit irritating. As far as those who attended the mosque were concerned, they weren’t doing anything wrong, and if there was a problem, the authorities should do the decent thing and raise it with them.

It was a complicated story to stand up. Noone associated with the mosque wanted to go on the record. The SIS did what the SIS does best – refused to comment, and all that was left was speculation, rumour, innuendo and a few pictures of a panel van and men in Hallensteins suits looking furtive.

Fast forward a decade or so, and the pressure was back on the Muslim community as ISIS rolled across eastern Syria and western Iraq like a thunderbolt. News that extremists were travelling to the region to join the so-called Caliphate put the role of the intelligence services and national security firmly back in the spotlight.

Out of this came one of the most disgraceful episodes I’ve ever seen from the SIS, their responsible Ministers, and the Government of the day. It centred on those women who were tagged, Jihadi brides.

At Select Committee hearings, the head of the SIS, Rebecca Kitteridge, along with the relevant Minister, Chris Finlayson, expanded on details about New Zealanders that had gone to fight with ISIS as well s those who had indicated an intent to do so. The Government of the day was very close-mouthed on details. All that was really said was that around five New Zealanders were known to have travelled to Syria to join the terrorist group.

However, some extra details were dropped at the hearing indicating the New Zealand women intended to travel to Syria to be brides for ISIS fighters. But, who they were and where they were was not specified for reasons of national security.

It wasn’t until well after the event that it emerged the women in question held dual citizenship and lived in Australia. None of them were in New Zealand. Not that you would have got that impression from the Government and the SIS when they announced the issue in public.

So, every Muslim woman in new Zealand was tarred by this association. Even though none of them were actually on the SIS’s radar, as had been heavily implied, it was a shameful act by the SIS and the Government of the day, and it’s one they should never be allowed to forget.

There are enough demons in this world without creating false ones in our own back yard.

When political shit goes south

It's funny, but if you observe politics long enough you see the same patterns played out over and over again.

Take, for example, the current travails besetting the National Party - which is currently about as popular as an STD-riddled knocking shop. It only seems like yesterday that the Labour Party was in a similar state. It wasn't so much that they were "Nigel no friends" as they were "Karens without a cause".

As Goff was to Labour, Bridges was to National. If David Shearer was Labour's 'mumblefuck' (people in his own inner sanctum called him this), then Muller was National's "clusterfuck".

Which kind of makes Judith Collins National's answer to David Cunliffe.

Now, as disturbing as that sounds, and as much as both of them would loathe the comparison, it actually holds some weight. Cunliffe led a party that had seen its vote collapse. In a desperate bid to shore up its vote he took it to the left - and in doing so he abandoned the middle. You know, that juicy piece of political real estate where most of the voters hang out.

And we all know how that worked out.

Collins has been doing the same. When you're polling in the 20s, and incidentally well below that mid-30s mark you've previously signalled as a benchmark for stability of leadership, you're going to try and pull any sort of rabbit out of hat to try and shore up your support. In this case the rabbit is a redneck with overwhelming overtones of racism.

This approach might have got Don Brash to 40% in 2005, but that was a generation ago. Demographs have changed, and while there remains an innate core of conservatism and racism in the country, its not the force it was 16 years ago. Playing the race card plays to the National Party base, but not so much to the centre as it once did.

The irony is we're hearing some of the same arguments over the relevance and importance of the centre as we did a decade ago. I remember sitting absolutely gobsmacked as a senior Labour MP declared to me (completely seriously I might add) that there was no centre in New Zealand politics and any suggestion it existed was the fevered imagination of the mainstream media. There was also the vehement denial of the polls and the stubborn insistence of, "that's not what I'm hearing on the ground".

Of course it's not. You're shoring up your base, you're talking to to your own supporters. Of course they're going to reflect your expectations.

John Key may have been the least ideological Prime Minister in recent history. He may have been a poll-driven populist who enjoyed the attention and adulation Prime Ministership brought him. He may have also had the least consequential political legacy of any Prime Minister New Zealand's ever had (cough .. flag ... cough). But, he was incredibly plugged into the electorate and innately tuned to their needs, wants, and fears - and he knew how to meet them.

The National Party no longer does.

The shit you find when you least expect it.

Like this blog, for example. I literally forgot I ever created this thing and, now that I've rediscovered it, can completely understand why I had expunged it from the recesses of my memory. Must. Do. Better.